Who would win? The better one. The luckier one. The one with tactical advantage. The one who got more sleep. The one with his back to the sun. The one with more purpose. The one with no purpose. There's no real answer, except "anyone".
The best I've seen is a quote from martial arts, and that is "The best has their betters". There is a reason that the World Champion at any given thing tends to change frequently (assuming competition). Even the best can be beaten, and by some "not as good".
Even trained exactly the same, same resources, same gear, there are more variables than you could ever figure out with repeated reliability and the exact same outcome every time. If you throw it to army vs army battle, the "superior" army wouldn't lose a single person. Doesn't happen.
So, Templar, Teutonic, Hospitaler, Saracen, Mongol, Samurai, Viking, Pirate, Ninja, Aztec... any one can beat the other on any given day. It's half skill, half chance. Lack of skill will get you killed just as easily as overconfidence in your skills.