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Historical HEMA Tournaments and Deeds of Arms
Ian:
Well then by that logic, no one should want to fly helicopters, drive cars, or sail on ships. But we do because we accept that the risk of death is so astronomically small that it's insignificant.
The point is we don't know the numbers, so what's invalid is just guessing that it will or won't happen.
And no, someone won't eventually get injured. It's only certain that someone would get injured if you extend the probability to it's limit over an infinite amount of time, which we obviously don't have. So you can very much go through your life without ever being stabbed through the eye no matter how hard you try to do it. But if you were immortal, yes you would eventually succeed.
Sir Edward:
We have to live with risks every day, that's for sure. But when the potential damage is huge, and the solution simple, why take that risk?
In any sort of engineering, you see this sort of argument all the time. Low probability events turn into high probability events all the time, when the conditions change just a little, in an unexpected way.
Let me ask you this-- if we took your advice, and said "screw the perf plate / wooden swords, it's good enough", and then someone died, how would you feel about that?
Yes, we don't know what the probability is. The only way to get that would be through experimental observation, which would require people taking the risk over extended periods of time.
The lack of that knowledge tells me to use caution, not to assume the probability is low and therefore safe. The probability could actually be quite high.
Ian:
--- Quote from: Sir Edward on 2014-06-10, 14:14:22 ---
We have to live with risks every day, that's for sure. But when the potential damage is huge, and the solution simple, why take that risk?
In any sort of engineering, you see this sort of argument all the time. Low probability events turn into high probability events all the time, when the conditions change just a little, in an unexpected way.
Let me ask you this-- if we took your advice, and said "screw the perf plate / wooden swords, it's good enough", and then someone died, how would you feel about that?
Yes, we don't know what the probability is. The only way to get that would be through experimental observation, which would require people taking the risk over extended periods of time.
The lack of that knowledge tells me to use caution, not to assume the probability is low and therefore safe. The probability could actually be quite high.
--- End quote ---
I would feel the same way I feel every time I know someone who dies in a fiery helicopter crash. Terrible. But that doesn't stop me from flying.
I'm not saying don't use safety precautions, I'm saying it's equally as invalid to assume it will happen in a limited amount of time.
Sir Edward:
--- Quote from: Ian on 2014-06-10, 14:15:52 ---I would feel the same way I feel every time I know someone who dies in a fiery helicopter crash. Terrible. But that doesn't stop me from flying.
I'm not saying don't use safety precautions, I'm saying it's equally as invalid to assume it will happen in a limited amount of time.
--- End quote ---
Right, that's the point. We don't know what the risks are, not with any certainty. All we know is that it is non-zero (the sword fits in the slot, for one thing, and secondly someone has already died from this). But without watching the fatality rate over years of people doing this, we can't get to what the risk level is. So why take the chance?
It shouldn't stop you from flying. But it should stop you from getting into an aircraft that has something missing or appears unsafe.
Perf-plates and thick-tipped swords are more the equivalent of seat belts, air-bags, fire extinguishers, parachutes, etc. Most of the time it's not needed, but in that rare, "one in a million" event, it might save your life.
Ian:
Ed, that's the entire point of this discussion. We don't know the numbers, so we can't make a real determination. No one is saying that we should just go ahead and do it and throw safety to the wind. The entire reason I brought this up is we can make an actual determination based on evidence instead of just saying "Oh it won't happen!" or conversely "Oh, it will definitely happen!" Because we don't know either way. Both are equally invalid arguments. I don't like relying on invalid bogus logic, hence the discussion...
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